Premiership Predictions 2007-2008

10Aug07

The Premiership is a little easier to predict than the Championship, however it’s still pretty tough pulling the teams apart. Have a look at my thoughts and see if you agree.

1 – Chelsea

Last season – 2nd
Manager – Jose Mourinho
Key man – Peter Cech
Estimated transfer outlay – £15m
Estimated transfer income – £Nominal

Predicted strongest line-up (4-1-2-3) – Cech, Ferreira, Terry, Carvalho, Cole, Makelele, Lampard, Essien, Malouda, Drogba, Robben

Despite losing the title to United last season, Chelsea remain the team to beat. Mourinho has indicated that he intends to return to a 4-3-3 formation this season, which could be ominous for Chelsea’s title rivals. The weak area remains the defensive depth, however if Alves and Alex arrive before the transfer window closes all should be well.

2 – Manchester United

Last season – 1st
Manager – Sir Alex Ferguson
Key man – Cristiano Ronaldo
Estimated transfer outlay – £55m
Estimated transfer income – £15m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – van der Sar, Neville, Vidic, Ferdinand, Evra, Ronaldo, Hargreaves, Scholes, Giggs, Tevez, Rooney

Sir Alex has spent heavily over the summer, however of the new recruits only Hargreaves and Tevez look like they will be regular first teamers. Goals will certainly not be a problem for United this season, although Heinze will be a significant loss at the back. Given that the United team more or less picked itself last season it will be interesting to see exactly what Ferguson does with his myriad of attacking players. Without doubt Man United will be far more flashy than Chelsea, however they may just lack substance this time around.

3 – Arsenal

Last season – 4th
Manager – Arsene Wenger
Key man – Robin Van Persie
Estimated transfer outlay – £14m
Estimated transfer income – £32m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-1-1) – Lehmann, Sagna, Toure, Gallas, Clichy, Hleb, Fabregas, Gilberto, Rosicky, da Silva, Van Persie

The loss of Henry is obviously significant, but will not lead to the meltdown some have predicted. Arsenal will remain a significant force in the Premier League and with a little more luck and a little more resilience could even improve on last season’s fourth place. Much will depend on Robin Van Persie’s ability to provide the goals, but don’t be surprised if Arsenal are more competitive than in recent seasons.

4 – Liverpool

Last season – 3rd
Manager – Rafa Benitez
Key man – Steven Gerrard
Estimated transfer outlay – £40m
Estimated transfer income – £20m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Reina, Finnan, Carragher, Agger, Riise, Gerrard, Alonso, Mascherano, Babel, Kuyt, Torres

Rafa Benitez has spent plenty of American cash this summer, gaining some quality players in the process, although quite how he intends to mould Liverpool’s increasingly classy squad into a coherent eleven-man team remains to be seen. Having said that at least the defence seems pretty settled and the addition of Heinze will be a valuable one should it happen. More than anything else Liverpool fans will just be hoping for a decent start to a season under Benitez. If they get that, who knows what will happen.

5 – Manchester City

Last season – 14th
Manager – Sven Goran Eriksson
Key man –
Estimated transfer outlay – £45m
Estimated transfer income – £5.8m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Isaksson, Richards, Corluka, Dunne, Garrido, Geovanni, Elano, Hamann, Petrov, Bojinov, Bianchi

Given that Sven has signed a number of relative unknowns it is almost impossible to predict how City will fair this season. Potentially they will start very slowly as all the new signings take time to bed in, but instinct tells me that Sven will have bought well and could surprise a few people. Eriksson sides are never particularly exciting, however they are generally very effective and with a huge amount of money to spend Man City could soon be troubling their illustrious neighbours just a little bit more.

6 – Tottenham Hotspur

Last season – 5th
Manager – Martin Jol
Key man – Dimitar Berbatov
Estimated transfer outlay – £33m
Estimated transfer income – £2m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Robinson, Chimbonda, King, Dawson, Bale, Lennon, Jenas, Boateng, Malbranque, Berbatov, Keane

Much has been made of Tottenham’s formidable strike force, however the fact of the matter is that realistically only two of Berbatov, Keane, Bent and Defoe can be on the pitch at any one time. Arguably the Tottenham squad is one of the most unbalanced in the Premiership with a wealth of talent in certain areas (up front, central midfield) and nothing at all in others (left wingers). Spurs should be up and around the European places come May, although you have to wonder whether, given the money that has been spent, manager Martin Jol will still be in a job by then.

7 – Aston Villa

Last season – 11th
Manager – Martin O’Neil
Key man – Gareth Barry
Estimated transfer outlay – £12m
Estimated transfer income – £6m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Carson, Mellberg, Cahill, Laursen, Bouma, Agbonlahor, Petrov, Reo-Coker, Barry, Young, Carew

Martin O’Neil has spent relatively little of Randy Learner’s millions since his arrival last summer, however Villa made steady progress throughout last season and will continue to improve this time around. A European push should not be beyond the Villans, however another striker and another defender would not go amiss. Prediction: Agbonlahor will be the star and get an England call-up before the season is out.

8 – West Ham United

Last season – 10th
Manager – Alan Curbishley
Key man – Scott Parker
Estimated transfer outlay – £23.6m
Estimated transfer income – £21m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Green, Neil, Upson, Ferdinand , McCartney, Ljungberg, Parker, Faubert, Etherington, Ashton, Bellamy

I really like the look of the side Curbishley is putting together at West Ham, certainly in terms of a first eleven. Scott Parker is a bargain at £7m, whilst Ashton and Bellamy could prove to be a lethal partnership up front. Potentially having Bellamy and Bowyer in the same squad could cause problems, but at least Dyer hasn’t arrived yet…

9 – Everton

Last season – 6th
Manager – David Moyes
Key man – Mikel Arteta
Estimated transfer outlay – £11m
Estimated transfer income – £5m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Howard, Hibbert, Yobo, Lescott, Baines, Arteta, Cahill, Neville, Osman, Johnson, Vaughan

Everton look well placed for another top ten finish this year. The Toffees have not spent as much money as some of the other sides in the league, however David Moyes has built a neat little side over the last couple of seasons which should give a good account of itself in 2007-2008. On their day stars such as Mikael Arteta and Tim Cahill are as good as anything the Premiership has to offer and whilst another new striker would not go amiss, Everton should have another decent season.

10 – Newcastle United

Last season – 13th
Manager – Sam Allardyce
Key man – Michael Owen
Estimated transfer outlay – £21m
Estimated transfer income – £7.5m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Given, Carr, Taylor, Rozehal, Enrique, Solano, Cacapa, Barton, Duff, Viduka, Owen

Rather like with Sven at Man City it is hard to know how Newcastle and new manager Big Sam Allardyce will fair this season. The former Bolton boss will be keen to make his mark on the Toon, however whether he will be able to toughen up a notoriously flimsy Newcastle side remains to be seen. Big Sam has always valued endeavour and organisation over flowing attack minded football and he may have a quite a challenge persuading the Toon Army to come round to his way of thinking. Having said that however, if Newcastle can become as feared as Bolton have been over the last few seasons I imagine few fans will be complaining.

11 – Blackburn Rovers

Last season – 10th
Manager – Mark Hughes
Key man – Benny McCarthy
Estimated transfer outlay – £4m
Estimated transfer income – £750k

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – James, Emerton, Samba, Nelsen, Warnock, Bentley, Tugay, Savage, Pedersen, McCarthy, Santa Cruz

Blackburn go into the new season with pretty much the same set of players that they ended with last year. Santa Cruz is the major new addition to the side and should offer something different up front, however Hughes will be looking towards key men like Nelsen and McCarthy if Rovers are to perform well again this year. Under Hughes, Blackburn are always organised and combative and although they may not have been spending as much money as some other clubs, they will have no fear of relegation.

12 – Portsmouth

Last season – 9th
Manager – Harry Redknapp
Key man – Sol Campbell
Estimated transfer outlay – £23m
Estimated transfer income – £Nominal

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-1-1) – James, Lauren, Distin, Campbell, Hreidarsson, Mendes, Muntari, O’Neil, Taylor, Utaka, Nugent

Pompey had a brilliant season in 2006-2007 and will be looking to make a similarly strong start this time around. Harry Redknapp has spent a lot of money strengthening his squad, however it remains to be seen if his side can challenge for Europe as must surely be the aim. Generally when Redknapp has cash to spend he has a tendency to fritter it away (Davor Suker anyone?) so I’m slightly sceptical as to what sort of impact players like Utaka and Muntari will have. In spite of this Fratton Park will always be a fortress for Pompey and home points should be fairly easy to come by, however Redknapp will need to work on his side’s away form if they are to improve on last seasons 9th place.

13 – Sunderland

Last season – 1st in Championship
Manager – Roy Keane
Key man – Dean Whitehead
Estimated transfer outlay – £27m
Estimated transfer income –£750k

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Gordon, Halford, McShane, Anderson, Collins, Edwards, Whitehead, Etuhu, Richardson, Chopra, Stokes

Roy Keane has the makings of a top manager. Last season the former Man United captain proved that he could motivate players, was tactically aware and, perhaps most surprisingly, could keep his cool under pressure. Some of Keane’s decision making during matches last season was inspired and despite the fact that the Sunderland squad does not look the strongest, having Keane at the helm should more than compensate for any deficit in playing talent.

14 – Middlesbrough

Last season – 12th
Manager – Gareth Southgate
Key man – Jonathon Woodgate/Yakubu
Estimated transfer outlay – £11.5m
Estimated transfer income –£1.5m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Schwarzer, Young, Woodgate, Pogatetz, Arca, Cattermole, Rochemback , Boateng, Downing, Yakubu, Tuncay

A few seasons back under Steve McLaren Middlesbrough were one of the most ambitious sides in the league. Signings such as Viduka, Hasselbaink, Reiziger and Zenden suggested that Boro might be looking to push on to better things, and indeed in 2005-2006 they reached the final of the UEFA Cup and the semi-finals of the FA Cup. Since then, however, McLaren been replaced by Gareth Southgate and Middlebrough have somewhat stagnated. Southgate will have been disappointed to lose Mark Viduka to Newcastle over the summer, although at least Jonathon Woodgate has made his move from Real Madrid permanent. Probably another season of consolidation for Boro, unless Yakubu leaves in which case it could be a struggle.

15 – Bolton Wanderers

Last season – 7th
Manager – Sammy Lee
Key man – Kevin Nolan
Estimated transfer outlay – £6.5m
Estimated transfer income – £nominal
Predicted strongest line-up (4-2-1-3) – Jaaskelainen, Hunt, Cid, Meite, Samuel, Campo, McCann, Nolan, Wilhelmsson, Anelka, Stelios

Big Sam had Bolton consistently punching above their weight in his time as manager. Now Sammy Lee has taken over the reigns the fear must be that Wanderers’ squad will be exposed for what it really is. With Nolan and Anelka in the team the Trotters will always have a chance, but don’t expect the likes of Arsenal and Man United to fearing a trip to the Reebok quite as much as they used to.

16 – Reading

Last season – 8th
Manager – Steve Coppell
Key man – Leroy Lita
Estimated transfer outlay – £3.15m
Estimated transfer income –£2.5m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Hahnemann, Murty, Ingimarsson, Sonko, Seol, Fae, Harper, Convey, Doyle, Lita

Reading were my tip to stay up of the three promoted sides last season and excelled in their first ever season of top flight football. Steve Coppell’s side were a tight, consistent unit and managed to surprise a lot of teams with some really high quality displays. With the exception of Sidwell most of last season’s side remains in tact, however the feeling must be that the surprise factor is now gone. Reading have also spent virtually nothing over the summer and with teams like Fulham, Portsmouth, West Ham and Sunderland spending in excess of £20m, surely they will find it much tougher this time around.

17 – Fulham

Last season – 16th
Manager – Lawrie Sanchez
Key man – Jimmy Bullard
Estimated transfer outlay – £24m
Estimated transfer income –£5.5m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Niemi, Hughes, Knight, Baird, Konchesky, Bullard, Bouba Diop, Davis, Cook, McBride, Kamara

Lawrie Sanchez has practically rebuilt the entire Fulham first eleven over the summer and at £25m the improvements have not come cheap. £6m for Diomansy Kamara seems more than a little excessive, whilst £4m for Villa’s Steven Davis looks astronomical. Nevertheless you would think that, given the cost, the new arrivals should make a difference. Whether it will be enough to keep Fulham away from relegation troubles is another matter. Sanchez is still more or less a rookie at this level, and whilst hoofing the ball to David Healy may have worked for Northern Ireland, the former Wycombe boss cannot expect many Premiership sides to be so easily beaten.

18 – Derby County

Last season – 3rd in Championship
Manager – Billy Davies
Key man – Robert Earnshaw
Estimated transfer outlay – £7.75m
Estimated transfer income – £450k

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Bywater, Mear, Davis, Leacock, McEverley, Teale, Oakley, Jones, Barnes, Howard, Earnshaw

Derby County ground their way into the Premier league with a series of 1-0 victories last season, but will have to be significantly more adventurous if they are to avoid an immediate return to the Championship. Keeping a clean sheet against the likes of Tottenham or West Ham is going to be a rather different from keeping out Hull or Burnley. Having said that, Derby have got quality in the likes of Earnshaw, Oakley and Jones and I don’t think they will be whipping boys a la Watford last season.

19 – Birmingham City

Last season – 2nd in Championship
Manager – Steve Bruce
Key man – Gary McSheffrey
Estimated transfer outlay – £10.2m
Estimated transfer income – £3.1m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Doyle, Kelly, Schmitz, Taylor, Queudrue, Larsson, Kapo, Johnson, McSheffrey, O’Conner, Jerome

Steve Bruce is in the fortunate position of, relatively speaking, being one of the most well backed managers in British football. Given the amount of money that he has spent in his time at Birmingham, Bruce should arguably have achieved much more than he actually has. The former Man United has always favoured negative football, and when City were in the Premiership last time around their performances were rarely inspirational. McSheffery is a good player, but elsewhere there’s not a lot to get excited about. An immediate return to the Championship is on the cards.

20 – Wigan Athletic

Last season – 17th
Manager – Chris Hutchings
Key man – Emile Heskey
Estimated transfer outlay – £10m
Estimated transfer income – £8.25m

Predicted strongest line-up (4-4-2) – Kirkland, Melchiot, Bramble, Granqvist, Kilbane, Landzaat, Brown, Scharner, Koumas, Heskey, Camara

Wigan Athletic have been busy assembling what can only be described as a relegation dream team. First Titus Bramble arrives to ‘bolster’ the defence and is then joined by Mario Melchiot to double the comedy value. If that was then not enough Jason-I-only-turn-up-for-one-in-every-three-matches-Koumas is brought in at the bargain price of £5.3m. Add to this serial underachievers such as Emile Heskey and a manager who has lasted only 12 matches in his last job and you may as well be holding a direct pass for relegation.

*All stats correct up until 08-08-07

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